在新冠背景下投资者情绪对我国股市交易影响：基于多变量平行中介模型

The Impact of Investor Sentiment on China’s Stock Market Trading in the Context of the COVID-19: Based on a Multivariate Parallel Intermediary Model

摘要: 为研究突发性公共卫生事件对中国股票市场与投资者情绪之间的关系，本文首先通过收集武汉结束的中国后疫情时代、上证A和深证A成份证券成交量和使用百度搜索“疫情”的指数作为投资者情绪代理变量，并组成面板数据集。本研究使用以投资者情绪为中介变量的模型调查新冠疫情对中国主要交易股市影响。本研究目的在于：第一，进行筛选确定出新冠肺炎期间具体变量对中国沪深A股市场交易中对交易额的首要调解人，计算两个要素具体起到具体效用，其次判断是否三者间存在中介效应，以及效应的大小。本研究发现投资者情绪是新冠肺炎疫情对中国沪深A股造成负面冲击的重要影响，其次，发现新冠肺炎数据与股票市场、投资者情绪之间存在显著的中介效应，其中在院治疗人数对中国股市交易额的影响最大。

Abstract: In order to investigate the relationship between sudden public health events on the Chinese stock market and investor sentiment, this paper first investigates the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China’s major trading stock markets using a panel dataset of investor sentiment proxies by col-lecting the post-epidemic era in China, the turnover of SSE A and SZSE A constituent securities at the end of Wuhan, and an index using Baidu’s search for “epidemic”, and form a panel dataset. The study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China’s major traded stock markets us-ing a model with investor sentiment as a mediating variable. The objectives of this study are, firstly, to conduct screening to determine the first mediator of specific variables on trading volume in Chi-na’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets during the COVID-19 pneumonia, to calculate the specific utility of the two elements, and secondly, to determine whether there is a mediating effect between the three and the magnitude of the effect. This study finds that investor sentiment is a sig-nificant influence on the negative impact of the COVID-19 Pneumonia epidemic on China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares. Secondly, a significant mediating effect is found between the COVID-19 Pneumonia data and stock market and investor sentiment, with the number of people treated in hospital having the largest effect on the trading volume of China’s stock market.