基于案例决策理论的企业数字化商业模式选择方法

Selecting Enterprise Digital Business Model Based on Case-Based Decision Theory

摘要: 选择适合的商业模式对于企业的可持续发展有着重要作用，随着数字经济的飞速发展，企业纷纷开展商业模式的数字化转型。如何采用科学的、可行的决策分析方法来解决企业数字化商业模式选择问题，是学术界和企业界需要关注的重要研究课题。该方法借鉴了案例决策理论(CBDT: Case-Based Decision Theory)的基本思想，首先明确商业模式的构成要素，然后确定企业的外部环境、企业内部环境以及用于描述企业商业模式的属性特征；再次，通过计算目标案例与历史案例的相似度，并通过设置相似度阀值来提取相似的历史案例，同时聘请专家结合企业发展的实际情况对提取出的相似历史案例进行修正，进而构建相似历史案例集；进一步地，计算相似历史案例的数字化商业模式实施效果的效用值；通过集结综合相似度和实施效果的效用值计算出每一个备选数字化商业模式的综合效用值，专家们依据企业发展的实际情况和实际条件，针对综合效用值最大的备选数字化商业模式进行再次修正，进而成为最优数字化商业模式。最后，给出实例分析来说明本文提出方法的可行性和有效性。

Abstract: Selecting the most desirable business model is vital important to enterprises’ further development and also significant to improve the competitiveness of enterprises. In recent years, the vigorous development of digital economy has continuously promoted the innovation of business model and the digital transformation of business model. How to use a scientific decision analysis method to select digital business models for enterprises is an important research topic. This paper is based on the basic idea of Case-based Decision Theory (CBDT). First of all, the business model components are clarified, and then the industry external environment dimension, the enterprise internal environment dimension and the attributes that can describe business model are determined; on the basis of this, the similar case set is screened and built by calculating the similarities between target case and historical case, as well as setting the similarity threshold, then the similar case set is revised by experts; and then the utility of implementation effect with regard to similar historical cases can be calculated, furthermore, the overall utility of each alternative digital business model can be gained by aggregating the overall utility of similarity and the implementation effect, one with the largest score of the overall utility might be revised by experts; thus the most suitable digital business model can be chosen. Finally, a case study on selecting the digital business model is given to show the feasibility and applicability of the method proposed in this paper.