存–流量关系判断中的S-F错误：年龄差异的视角

S-F Failure in the Judgment of Stock-Flow Relationships: Perspective of Age Difference

摘要: 存–流量关系判断中的S-F错误(Stock-Flow Failure，简称S-F错误)是人们在累积问题理解上所存在的典型错误。正确理解和管理存量与流量，对社会、企业和个人来说有着极为重要的意义。本研究中，实验一使用商场顾客量任务，选取五年级、初中、高中、大学及老年组被试，考察不同年龄组存–流量错误及类型的差异性；实验二和实验三使用画图任务，选取初、高中及大学三个年龄组，分别考察不同年龄组在关联启发式使用上的差异性，以及不同年龄组在将存量与流量简单匹配联系上的差异性。结果表明：1) 随年龄增长，被试出现存–流量错误和选择极值点的比例下降，选择Gap点的比例上升，但老年组分别出现回升和降低。2) 随年龄增长，被试使用关联启发式的比例下降。3) 随年龄增长，被试将存量轨迹与流入(出)量轨迹进行简答匹配的百分比降低，与净流量轨迹进行简单匹配的百分比增加。

Abstract: Stock-flow (S-F) failure in the judgment of stock-flow relationships is a typical failure in people’s understanding of accumulation problems. The correct understanding and management of stock and flow are of great importance to society, enterprises, and individuals. In this study, experiment I used the shopping mall customer volume task to select the fifth grade, middle school, high school, college and the elderly group to investigate the differences of deposit-traffic errors and types in different age groups. In experiments II and III, drawing task was used to select three age groups, namely junior, senior high and university, to investigate the differences in the use of correlation heuristics among different age groups, as well as the differences in the simple matching between stock and flow. The results show that: 1) With the increase of age, the proportion of stock-flow failure and maximum value point selection decreased, and the proportion of Gap point selection increased, but the old group showed a rise and a decrease respectively. 2) With the increase of age, the proportion of subjects using correlation heuristics decreased. 3) With the increase of age, the percentage of short answer matching between the stock trajectory and the inflow (outflow) trajectory decreases, while the percentage of simple matching between the stock trajectory and the net flow trajectory increases.