探究我国中部地区城镇居民人均消费支出和人均可支配收入的关系

Exploring the Relationship between Per Capita Consumption Expenditure and Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Residents in the Central Region of China

摘要: 本文选取1991~2021年中部地区湖南、河南、安徽、江西、湖北、山西六个省份共186个样本的面板数据，选取城镇居民人均可支配收入的对数作为解释变量，选取城镇居民的人均消费支出的对数作为被解释变量，通过多角度的检验得出需建立固定效应模型来进行分析，采用Eviews软件对模型进行求解并证明模型的合理性。选择湖南省1991~2021年人均可支配收入共31期时间序列数据，通过Eviews建立ARIMA模型开展时间序列的建模分析，并最后理论分析城镇居民人均可支配收入在时间层面上对城镇居民人均消费支出的影响。最终得出结论：中部地区六个省份之间人均可支配收入对人均消费支出的影响存在着异质性的差异，人均可支配收入的增加对人均消费支出的提高具有明显且连续的促进作用。

Abstract: This paper selects panel data of a total of 186 samples from six provinces of Hunan, Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Shanxi in the central region from 1991 to 2021, selects the logarithm of urban residents’ per capita disposable income as the explanatory variable and the logarithm of urban residents’ per capita consumption expenditure as the explanatory variable, and concludes that a fixed-effect model is needed to conduct the analysis through a multi-angle test, and uses Eviews software is used to solve the model and prove the rationality of the model. The ARIMA model was developed by Eviews to analyze the time series of disposable income per capita from 1991 to 2021 in Hunan Province, and the final theoretical analysis of the impact of disposable income per capita on consumption expenditure per capita of urban residents at the time level was conducted. It is fi-nally concluded that there are heterogeneous differences in the effects of per capita disposable in-come on per capita consumption expenditure among six provinces in the central region, and the in-crease in per capita disposable income has a significant and continuous contribution to the increase in per capita consumption expenditure.