灰色系统理论预测畜禽粪便生物能源潜力

Prediction of Bioenergy Potential of Livestock and Poultry Manure by Grey System Theory

摘要: 灰色理论因其算法简单、运算速度快、短期预测效果好等优点被广泛应用于能源预测等多个领域，数据的时空尺度对于预测精度有重要的影响。本研究利用灰色GM(1,1)、灰色GM(1,5)、灰色线性回归组合及其加权灰色模型对全国和京津冀地区的禽畜粪便可收集量折标煤量进行模拟和预测，分析6年、9年、12年和15年四种时间尺度下的模拟精度，预测未来五年的能源潜力，并分析预测合理性及灰色模型的适用性。结果发现，1) 能源潜力预测的最优模型和时间尺度依赖于生物质的种类和空间尺度；2) 全国和京津冀禽畜粪便可收集折标煤量模拟和预测效果最好的分别是12年时间尺度下的灰色GM(1,5)模型和9年时间尺度下灰色线性回归组合模型，平均误差为1.51%和1.52%；3) 预测2021~2025年的生物质能源潜力，全国禽畜粪便可收集折标煤量呈缓慢下降趋势，而京津冀地区呈现先下降后增加的趋势。研究结果可为全国和京津冀地区的畜禽粪便生物质资源的开发提供理论指导。

Abstract: Grey theory has been widely used in many aspects including energy prediction due to its ad-vantages of simple algorithm, fast operation speed and good short-term prediction effect. The spa-tial and temporal scale of the data is very important for the prediction accuracy of grey models. This research fits and predicts the collecting standard coal quantity of livestock feces in whole China and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The models used in this research include grey GM(1,1), gray GM(1,5), combination of gray linear regression and weighted grey linear regression model. The durations of data are set as 6 years, 9 years, 12 years and 15 years. Furthermore, the bioenergy potential in the next 5 years is predicted. The rationality of prediction and applicability of different grey models are analyzed. The main results are as follows: 1) The optimal model and time scale of energy potential prediction depend on the types and spatial scale of biomass. The gray GM(1,5) model with an average error of 1.51% is the best model to simulate and predict the collecting standard coal quantity of livestock feces in China; 2) The optimal model for simulating and predicting the collecting standard coal quantity oflivestock feces in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is gray linear regression combined model on a 9-year time scale, with an average error of 1.52%; 3) The bioenergy potential from 2021 to 2025 is predicted. The collecting standard coal quantity of livestock feces in China will decrease slowly, while that in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will decrease first and increase later. The results of this research are expected to provide theoretical guidance for reutilization of livestock feces in China and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.