Caprini和Rogers联合预测模型对妇科恶性肿瘤患者静脉血栓栓塞筛查的效果评估

Evaluation of the Effect of Combined Prediction Model of Caprini and Rogers in Screening Venous Thromboembolism in Patients with Gynecological Malignant Tu-mor

摘要: 目的：应用Caprini和Rogers风险评估模型对妇科恶性肿瘤患者静脉血栓栓塞症(venous thrombo-embolism, VTE)的适用性进行评估，以验证其有效性。方法：采用病例对照研究方法，选择病例组与对照组各128人，应用一般描述性研究方法对患者的基本情况进行描述，通过绘制ROC曲线，对风险评估模型的筛查能力进行评价。结果：Caprini模型以9分为临界值时，ROC曲线下面积为0.801，灵敏度和特异度分别为0.727和0.836，约登指数为0.563，阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为0.816和0.754。Rogers模型以10分为临界值时，ROC曲线下面积为0.804，灵敏度和特异度分别为0.695和0.828，约登指数为0.523，阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为0.802和0.731。Caprini与Rogers的联合预测模型，以18.931分为临界值，ROC曲线下面积为0.873，约登指数为0.703，灵敏度、特异度分别为0.844和0.859，阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为0.857和0.846。结论：Caprini和Rogers联合预测模型对妇科恶性肿瘤手术患者静脉血栓栓塞有良好的预测作用，对预防VTE具有积极的指导意义。

Abstract: Objective: To evaluate the applicability of the Caprini and Rogers risk assessment models for ve-nous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with gynecological malignant tumors and verify their ef-fectiveness. Methods: A case-control study was conducted with 128 patients in the case group and 128 in the control group. The general descriptive study method was used to describe the basic situ-ation of patients. The screening ability of the risk assessment model was evaluated by drawing ROC curve. Results: When the critical value of the Caprini model was 9 points, the area under the ROC curve was 0.801, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.727 and 0.836, and the Youden index was 0.563, the positive and negative predictive values were 0.816 and 0.754 respectively. When the critical value of the Rogers model was 10 points, the area under the ROC curve was 0.804, the sensi-tivity and specificity was 0.695 and 0.828, the Youden Index was 0.523, and the positive and nega-tive predictive values were 0.802 and 0.731, respectively. The joint prediction model of Caprini and Rogers took 18.931 as the critical value. The area under ROC curve is 0.873, the Youden index was 0.703, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.844 and 0.859 respectively, and the positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 0.857 and 0.846 respectively. Conclusion: The combined prediction model of Caprini and Rogers has a good predictive effect on venous thromboembolism in patients undergoing gynecological malignant tumor surgery, and has a positive guiding significance for preventing VTE.