基于Logistic模型楚雄市龙川江下游水环境污染对农业经济效益影响研究

Logistic Model Based on the Downstream of Chuxiong Longchuan River Water Environment Pollution on Study on the Impact of Agricultural Economic Benefits

摘要: 为研究楚雄市城市河流流域龙川江对农业经济效益的影响，在楚雄市龙川江下游区段对镍、磷、氨氮、锰、六价铬、总铁、亚硝酸盐水质进行检测的基础上，基于Logistic模型核算2022年5月~11月楚雄市龙川江下游区段水污染造成的农业经济损失。结果表明：楚雄市龙川江下游氨氮和亚硝酸盐浓度总体上呈同步变化趋势，氨氮指标对农业损失值影响最大，农业经济综合损失率和农业经济损失值在9月达最高值，农业经济综合损失率最高为99.1562%，农业经济损失值最高值为119263.2万元。东盛桥断面农业经济累计损失298594.661万元，双园桥断面农业经济累计损失188368.706万元。因此必须及时监测污染物浓度，综合治理城市污水，控制流域氨氮浓度，降低水体污染物浓度。

Abstract: In a study of the impact of Longchuan River, an urban river basin in Chuxiong City, on the economic benefits of agriculture, based on the detection of nickel, phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, man-ganese, hexavalent chromium, total iron and nitrite water quality in the downstream section of Longchuan River in Chuxiong City, based on Logistic model to account for May-November 2022 in the downstream section of Longchuan River in Chuxiong City The economic loss of agriculture caused by water pollution in the downstream section of Longchuan River in Chuxiong City from May to November 2022. The results showed that the ammonia nitrogen and nitrite concentrations in the downstream of Longchuan River in Chuxiong City generally showed a synchronous trend, the ammonia nitrogen index had the greatest impact on the value of agricultural losses, and the combined agricultural economic loss rate and the value of agricultural economic losses reached the highest value in September, with the highest combined agricultural economic loss rate of 99.1562% and the highest value of agricultural economic losses of 119,263,000 yuan. The cumulative loss of agricultural economy of Dongsheng Bridge section is 298,594,661,000 Yuan, and the cumulative loss of agricultural economy of Shuang Yuan Bridge section is 188,368,706,000 Yuan. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor and control in a timely manner, comprehensive management of urban sewage, control the concentration of ammonia and nitrogen in the watershed, and reduce the concentration of pollutants in the water body.