基于多框架模型的不同自然带生态安全评价及动态预警研究

Research on Ecological Security Evaluation and Dynamic Early Warning of Different Natural Zones Based on Multi-Frame Model

摘要: 生态安全正逐渐成为国家安全体系的重要组成部分，开展生态安全评价研究，可为国家生态环境保护、生态文明建设以及人与自然永续发展提供科学依据。本文以温度带作为划分依据，选取了云南省内分布于各温度带的7个典型区县作为研究对象，结合DPSIR模型与EES模型，构建了云南省不同温度带典型研究区具有特色的生态安全评价体系，通过对研究区2000~2005年生态安全的动态评价，基于该实验结果，了解了其安全演变过程、安全现状、与自然带之间的联系等，并针对其存在的安全问题进行了对策探讨，主要研究结论如下：1) 2000~2005年，云南省7个温度带的代表区域，其生态安全评价综合值整体上逐年提高，从云南省温度带分布的角度看，呈现出从北亚热带向南亚热带增加的趋势。2) 位于滇中地区的北亚热带和中亚热带代表区域生态安全等级整体上居于良好级以上。

Abstract: Ecological security is gradually becoming an important component of the national security system, and conducting ecological security evaluation research can provide a scientific basis for national ecological environment protection, ecological civilization construction, and sustainable development of humans and nature. Based on the division of temperature zones, this paper selected seven typical districts and counties distributed in each temperature zone in Yunnan Province as the research object, combined with the DPSIR model and the EES model, and constructed a characteristic ecological security evaluation system for typical research areas in different temperature zones in Yunnan Province. Through the dynamic evaluation of ecological security in the research area from 2000 to 2005, based on the experimental results, the safety evolution process, its safety status quo, and the connection between it and the natural zone were understood, and the countermeasures are discussed in view of the existing safety problems. The main research conclusions are as follows: 1) From 2000 to 2005, the comprehensive ecological safety evaluation values of the seven representative temperature zones in Yunnan Province have increased year by year. From the perspective of the distribution of temperature zones in Yunnan Province, there is a trend of increasing from the north subtropical to the south subtropical. 2) The ecological security level of the representative regions of the northern and central subtropics located in the central Yunnan region is generally above the good level.