基于ARIMA模型和GM (1, 1)模型的“地方政府账单”预测与管理——以山东省为例

Prediction and Management of “Local Government Bills” Based on ARIMA Model and GM (1, 1) Model—A Case Study of Shandong Province

摘要: “地方政府账单”的存在说明了一个地方政府的支出状况，可以说“政府账单”项项关乎民生，整个账单的开支结构可以正面反映出政府的职能重心和国家的发展需求。“政府账单”提供了一个研究政府预算管理的切入口，本文通过两种统计方法即ARIMA模型和GM (1, 1)模型对于选取的山东省“政府账单”进行预测，并且得到了相似的结果，这样的预测值和变化趋势分析对于我国地方政府的财政效能提升和自我精简避免走入“膨胀陷阱”具有极大助力，亦可以作为优化我国预算管理策略和开发预算管理措施的一手资料。

Abstract: The existence of “local government bills” shows the expenditure status of a local government. It can be said that the items of “government bills” are related to people’s livelihood. The expenditure structure of the whole bill can positively reflect the functional focus of the government and the development needs of the country. “Government bill” provides an entry point for studying government budget management. This paper forecasts the selected “government bill” of Shandong Province through two statistical methods, namely ARIMA model and GM (1, 1) model, and obtains similar results. Such forecast value and change trend analysis will greatly help the local governments in China to improve their financial efficiency and self streamline and avoid falling into the “inflation trap”. It can also be used as the first-hand information for optimizing the budget management strategy and developing the budget management measures in China.