基于HYSPLIT模型模拟六盘山地区水汽来源以及与降水量相关性分析
Simulation of Water Vapor Source and Correlation Analysis with Precipitation in Liupan Mountain Based on HYSPLIT Model
DOI: 10.12677/ORF.2023.133231, PDF,  被引量    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 李 峰, 邱玉珺*：南京信息工程大学中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室，江苏 南京
关键词: 六盘山；HYSPLIT；降水量；水汽输送；相关分析；Liupan Mountain； HYSPLIT； Precipitation； Water Vapor Transport； Correlation Analysis
摘要: 本文采用宁夏六盘山地区2020年夏季气象观测资料、同期微波辐射计资料以及NCEP全球同化气象资料，结合后向轨迹HYSPLIT模型、线性回归方法，研究了六盘山夏季降水水汽来源以及降水量与气象要素、降水资源的相关性分析。结果显示：1) 8月份比7月份和9月份分别多出20.3%和23.1%的偏南暖湿气流输送，造成六盘山地区8月份降水量分别是7月份和9月份的2.1和4.7倍。2) 7月份水汽输送潜在源主要在陕西西南部地区，对六盘山水汽贡献率较大。3) 降水量与湿度呈正相关且相关系数较高(0.3)，与十分风速呈负相关且相关系数较低(0.04)。4) 降水量与降水资源(可降水量、水汽通量、不稳定能量)呈显著相关，回归方程达到显著水平。
Abstract: In this paper, meteorological observation data of July, August and September 2020, microwave radiometer data of the same period and NCEP global assimilated meteorological data were used in Liupanshan region of Ningxia, combined with backward trajectory HYSPLIT Euler model and linear regression method. The correlation analysis of water vapor source and precipitation with meteorological elements and precipitation resources during summer precipitation in Liupan Mountain was studied. The results showed that: 1) Compared with July and September, 20.3% and 23.1% more southerly warm and wet air transported in August, which resulted in 2.1 and 4.7 times of precipitation in Liupanshan in August. 2) The potential source of water vapor transport in July was mainly in the southwest of Shaanxi Province, which contributed a lot to the water vapor in Liupan Mountain. 3) Precipitation has a positive correlation with humidity with a high correlation coefficient (0.3), and a negative correlation with wind speed with a low correlation coefficient (0.04). 4) Precipitation has a significant correlation with precipitation resources (precipitable water vapor flux, unstable energy), and the regression equation reaches a significant level.
文章引用：李峰, 邱玉珺. 基于HYSPLIT模型模拟六盘山地区水汽来源以及与降水量相关性分析[J]. 运筹与模糊学, 2023, 13(3): 2303-2314. https://doi.org/10.12677/ORF.2023.133231

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