机器学习技术在煤层底板突水预测中的研究现状

Research Status of Machine Learning Technology in Prediction of Water Inrush from Coal Seam Floor

摘要: 为了对煤层底板突水实现更加精准可靠的预测，减少矿井水害的发生。机器学习在煤层底板突水预测得到了广泛应用，对目前煤层底板突水预测的应用效果进行汇总分析，整理出当下煤层底板突水预测所存在的主要问题。底板突水预测技术存在的主要问题在于水文地质条件复杂且突水数据较少；煤层底板突水主控因素的选取对基于机器学习的煤层底板突水预测十分重要；算法模型的选取在泛化能力与过拟合问题起很大作用；深度学习的快速发展为底板突水预测技术提供新的方向，但在训练数据上仍然有较大的影响。对未来煤层底板突水预测技术发展进行了思考，对近些年煤层底板突水预测方法汇总并进行比较，发现目前技术所存在的利弊，对未来精准、高效地煤层底板突水预测进行展望。

Abstract: In order to achieve more accurate and reliable prediction of water inrush from coal seam floor and reduce the occurrence of mine flood. Machine learning has been widely used in the prediction of water inrush from coal seam floor. This paper summarizes and analyzes the application effect of current coal seam floor water inrush prediction, and sorts out the main problems existing in the current coal seam floor water inrush prediction. The main problem of the water inrush prediction technology is that the hydrogeological conditions are complex and the water inrush data are few. The selection of main controlling factors of water inrush from coal seam floor will have a great impact on the prediction of water inrush from coal seam floor based on machine learning. The se-lection of algorithm model plays an important role in generalization ability and over-fitting prob-lem. Although the rapid development of deep learning provides a new direction for floor water inrush prediction technology, it still has a great impact on training data. At the end, the future de-velopment of coal seam floor water inrush prediction technology is considered and explored. This paper summarizes and compares the prediction methods of water inburst from coal seam floor in recent years, and finds out the advantages and disadvantages of the current technology. The accu-rate and efficient prediction of water inrush from coal seam floor in the future is prospected.