公路交通与区域经济的耦合协调水平研究——以山东省为例

Research on the Coupling and Coordination Level of Highway Transportation and Regional Economy—Taking Shandong Province as an Example

摘要: 本文基于山东省16个地级市为例，构建公路交通与区域经济的耦合协调评价体系。运用主成分分析法、耦合协调度模型与灰色关联度分析法对2011~2020年山东省公路交通与区域经济的耦合协调程度及关联程度进行分析，结果显示：1) 从时间序列看，山东省各地级市公路交通与区域经济的耦合度处于高水平耦合阶段，整体呈现小幅度波动趋势；耦合协调度水平整体不高，处于中度失调向良好协调的过渡阶段；2) 从空间角度分析，耦合协调度呈现以省会及沿海发达城市为中心向四周递减的格局，各地市的耦合协调度总体而言处于勉强协调与中级协调之间；其中处于中级协调的地市主要分布在东部沿海与鲁中中部地区；鲁南地区各地市耦合协调度仅次于东部沿海和鲁中；鲁北地区协调水平处于勉强协调，具有显著的空间差异性；3) 公路交通与区域经济的关联程度整体上具有较高的关联性。

Abstract: Based on 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province as an example, this paper constructs the coupling coordination evaluation system of highway traffic and regional economy. The coupling coordination degree and correlation degree of highway traffic and regional economy in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020 are analyzed by principal component analysis, coupling coordination degree model and grey correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) From the perspective of time series, the coupling degree of highway traffic and regional economy in Shandong Province is at a high level of coupling stage, showing a small fluctuation trend as a whole. The overall level of coupling coordination is not high, and it is in the transition stage from moderate imbalance to good coordination. 2) From the perspective of space, the coupling coordination degree shows a pattern of decreasing from the center of provincial capitals and coastal developed cities to the surrounding areas. Among them, the cities in intermediate coordination are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas and the central and central regions of Shandong; the coupling coordination degree of cities in southern Shandong is second only to the eastern coast and the middle of Shandong; the coordination level in northern Shandong is barely coordinated, with significant spatial differences; 3) The correlation degree between highway traffic and regional economy is high on the whole.