云南丽江暴雨灾害的自动雨量站预警指标研究

Study on the Early Warning Index of Automatic Rainfall Station for Rainstorm Disaster in Lijiang, Yunnan

摘要: 收集整理云南省丽江市历史上暴雨灾情资料、降水资料特别是近9年自动雨量站逐小时雨量资料及闪电定位资料，使用统计学方法分析诊断暴雨灾害的致灾成因。结果表明：1) 丽江市暴雨灾害主要发生在每年的5~10月，尤以7月份最为突出；2) 丽江市华坪县西北部是暴雨灾害的多发区和重灾区；3) 暴雨灾害可分为中尺度雨团造成对流性强降水和中尺度雨团参与的连续性降水两类，而且尤以对流性降水类居多；4) 丽江市境内任意1个自动雨量站点出现29.4 mm/h以上的对流性短时强降水或2个县(区)以上的任意1个站点出现R6 ≥ 34.2 mm的非对流性降水时，发布相关暴雨预警，预警时间提前量平均为7.1小时，用此临界指标对2022年5~10月份进行逐日检验，效果较好。

Abstract: Collect and sort out the historical rainstorm disaster data, precipitation data, especially the hourly rainfall data and lightning location data of the automatic rainfall station in recent 9 years in Lijiang City, Yunnan Province, and use statistical methods to analyze and diagnose the causes of rainstorm disasters. The results show that: 1) rainstorm disasters in Lijiang mainly occur from May to October every year, especially in July; 2) the northwest of Huaping County, Lijiang City is the area with frequent and severe rainstorm disasters; 3) the rainstorm disaster can be divided into two types: the convective heavy precipitation caused by the mesoscale rain cluster and the continuous precipitation participated by the mesoscale rain cluster, especially the convective precipitation; 4) when any one automatic rainfall station in Lijiang has convective short-term strong precipitation of more than 29.4 mm/h or R6 ≥ 34.2 mm precipitation at any one station in more than two counties (districts), the relevant rainstorm warning will be issued, with an average advance of 7.1 hours. This critical index is used to conduct daily inspection from May to October 2022, and the effect is good.