基于GM(1,1)模型的山东省GDP数据预测研究

Research on GDP Data Prediction of Shandong Province Based on GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 分析和预测国内生产总值(GDP)发展数据对预测国家或地区经济发展有很大的参考作用。本文通过对山东省2011~2021年GDP历史数据进行分析，建立GM(1,1)模型，并进行残差检验和实证检验。结果表明该预测方法的可行性和有效性具有较高的预测精度和准确度，能恰当描述山东省的GDP状况，可对山东省今后的GDP发展进行预测分析。研究结果表明山东省GDP数据在未来五年会呈持续上涨的趋势，在不遭遇重大特殊事件的情况下，山东省GDP预计不会出现剧烈波动，对于山东省经济发展具有一定的意义。

Abstract: Analyzing and predicting the development data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a great refer-ence value for predicting the economic development of a country or region. This paper analyzes the historical GDP data of 2011~2021 in Shandong Province, establishes the GM(1,1) model, and con-ducts residual test and empirical test. The results indicate that the feasibility and effectiveness of this prediction method have high prediction accuracy and accuracy, and can appropriately describe the GDP transformation status of Shandong Province, which can be used for predicting and analyz-ing the future GDP development of Shandong Province. The research results indicate that the GDP data of Shandong Province will continue to rise in the next five years. Without encountering major special events, Shandong Province’s GDP is expected to not experience significant fluctuations, which has certain significance for the economic development of Shandong Province.