城市交通业碳排放特征与减排情景分析

Carbon Emission Characteristics and Emission Reduction Scenario Analysis of Urban Transportation Industry

摘要: 城市交通碳减排是实现“双碳”目标的重要环节，以成都市为研究对象，分析2021年成都市交通碳排放情况，并对出行结构优化情况下的交通碳排放进行了预测。结果表明：2021年成都市交通碳排放总量为469.7万吨，其中私家车的碳排放量最高，占85.50%；地铁次之，碳排放量为32.64万吨，占6.95%；公交系统碳排放量最少，仅为2.30万吨，占比0.49%。2031年公共交通出行结构比例提高到45%，汽车出行结构减少至15%时，碳排放量约减少101.51万吨，减少占比约23.3%。本研究表明，交通出行结构优化和动力能源优化是实现交通碳减排的关键措施。

Abstract: Urban transportation carbon emission reduction is an important part of achieving the “dual carbon” goal, taking Chengdu as the research object, the carbon emissions of transportation in Chengdu in 2021 were analyzed, and the transportation carbon emissions under the condition of travel structure optimization were predicted. The results show that the total carbon emissions of trans-portation in Chengdu in 2021 will be 4.697 million tons, of which private cars have the highest carbon emissions, accounting for 85.50%; metro followed, with carbon emissions of 326,400 tons, accounting for 6.95%; the public transport system has the lowest carbon emissions, only 23,000 tons, accounting for 0.49%. In addition, when the carbon emissions under the travel structure op-timization scenario and power system optimization are calculated, the proportion of public transport travel structure will increase to 45% in 2031, and when the automobile travel structure is reduced to 15%, carbon emissions will be reduced by about 1.0151 million tons, accounting for about 23.3%. This study shows that transportation structure optimization and power energy op-timization are the key measures to achieve transportation carbon emission reduction.