我国人口生育行为影响因素的多模型分析研究

Multi-Model Analysis and Research on Influencing Factors of Population Fertility Behavior in China

摘要: 长期极低的生育率将会造成人口失衡和劳动力短缺的后果。本文基于中国社会状况综合调查(CSS)数据，运用有序Logistic回归、Poisson回归、LightGBM模型、中介效应模型等方法，对不同特征育龄群体的生育行为进行差异分析并探究影响生育行为的社会经济因素，主要研究结论有：1) 当前有约四成的育龄群体选择终身生育1个或不生孩子，除性别外，不同特征育龄群体之间生育行为差异显著。2) 受教育水平越高、家庭人均收入越高、家庭相对收入越低、家庭规模越小、参与养老保险的育龄群体其生育更多子女的可能性更低，其中，家庭规模、个人及家庭收入的特征重要性更高。3) 中介效应结果显示，受教育程度、家庭规模会通过影响生育意愿，从而对生育行为产生影响。为此本文提出了相应建议，为改善生育水平，促进人口均衡发展提供决策参考。

Abstract: Chronically very low fertility rates will lead to population imbalances and labor shortages. Based on the data of Chinese Social Survey (CSS) and using the methods of ordered Logistic regression, Pois-son regression, LightGBM model and intermediary effect model, this paper analyzes the differences in fertility behaviors of different characteristics of childbearing age groups and explores the so-cio-economic factors affecting fertility behaviors. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Currently, about 40 percent of people of childbearing age choose to have one or no children at all. In addition to gender, there are significant differences in fertility behavior among different characteristics of childbearing age groups. 2) The higher the level of education, the higher the per capita income of the family, the lower the relative income of the family, the smaller the family size, and the lower the probability of having more children in the childbearing age group participating in the pension in-surance. Among them, the characteristics of family size and family income are more important. 3) The mediating effect model shows that education level and family size affect reproductive behavior through influencing reproductive intention. Therefore, this paper puts forward corresponding sug-gestions to provide decision-making reference for improving fertility level and promoting balanced population development.