塔城地区风速及风口区域风能资源特征分析

Analysis of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Resource Characteristics in Tuyere Area of Tacheng Area

摘要: 本文利用塔城地区1960~2020年7个国家地面气象观测站逐日平均风速和2018~2021年3个区域自动气象站逐日10分钟平均风速观测资料，分析了近61年塔城地区平均风速的变化趋势，以及近4年风口区域有效风速时数和有效风能密度。结果表明：1) 近61年来，塔城地区年平均风速呈减少趋势，递减率为−0.174 m/(s∙10a)，其中南部地区递减率高于北部；四季风速递减率为夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季。2) 由M-K检验可知，塔城地区年和秋季平均风速未发生突变，春、夏季均在1980年前后发生突变，冬季在1973年发生突变。3) 小波分析表明，年平均风速变化存在以7年、18年和30年左右的周期变化。4) 塔城地区风口区域年平均有效风速时数为4527 ｈ，年平均有效风能密度为195 W/m2，属风能较丰富区。

Abstract: In this paper, based on the daily average wind speed observation data of seven national surface meteorological observation stations in the Tacheng area from 1960 to 2020 and the daily 10-minute average wind speed observation data of three regional automatic weather stations from 2018 to 2021, the variation trend of average wind speed in the Tacheng area in recent 61 years, as well as the effective wind speed hours and effective wind energy density in the tuyere area in recent 4 years were analyzed. The results show that: 1) The annual average wind speed in the Tacheng area has been decreasing in the past 61 years, with a decreasing rate of −0.174 m/(s•10a), and the decreasing rate in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region. The decreasing rate of wind speed in the four seasons is summer > spring > autumn > winter. 2) The M-K test shows that there is no mutation in the annual and autumn average wind speed in the Tacheng area. The mutation occurs around 1980 in spring and summer, and in 1973 in winter. 3) Wavelet analysis shows that the annual average wind speed changes have periodic changes of 7 years, 18 years and 30 years. 4) The annual average effective wind speed hours in the tuyere area of Tacheng area is 4527 h, and the annual average effective wind energy density is 195 W/m2, which belongs to the wind energy-rich area.