基于灰度预测和Lasso回归模型的长三角地区碳达峰碳中和时间的预测

Prediction of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Time in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on Grey Prediction and Lasso Regression Model

摘要: 本文从政策以及能源消费结构探讨新能源汽车发展与双碳关系的关系，得出新能源汽车对双碳具有推进作用。为了预测长三角地区碳达峰碳中和的时间到来，本文首先采用灰度预测模型，对新能源汽车市场保有量、销量、充电桩数量分别进行未来25年的数据预测，再用Lasso回归模型，得出长三角地区碳排放数据与三者之间的线性关系，最后将未来25年数据代入得到碳排放未来25年数据，得出长三角地区的碳达峰碳中和的时间。

Abstract: This article explores the relationship between the development of new energy vehicles and dual carbon from the perspective of policies and energy consumption structure, and concludes that new energy vehicles have a promoting effect on dual carbon. In order to predict the time of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the Yangtze River Delta, this paper first uses the grey prediction model to predict the data of the new energy vehicle market holdings, sales, and the number of Charging sta-tion in the next 25 years, then uses Lasso regression model to obtain the linear relationship be-tween the carbon emission data in the Yangtze River Delta and the three, and finally uses the data of the next 25 years to get the data of carbon emissions in the next 25 years, Determine the time when carbon reaches its peak and carbon neutrality in the Yangtze River Delta region.