理性预期理论在证券投资中的运用研究

On the Application of the Expectations The-ory in Portfolio Investment

摘要: 理性预期是经济学中的一个重要概念，它影响着人们的消费、投资等行为。理性预期理论认为，理性预测是基于所有可以得到的信息而做出的最优预测。有效市场假说是理性预期理论在证券市场中的应用，认为有效市场反映了可预期的全部信息，证券价格波动主要受不可预期的因素影响。不可预期的因素的出现是随机漫步的，难以预测的，这就是随机漫步理论。所以，证券价格是不可预测的，多数证券组合投资者只能获得均衡的回报率。

Abstract: Rational expectation is an important concept in economics, which affects people's consumption, investment and other behaviors. Rational expectation theory believes that rational prediction is the best prediction based on all available information. The efficient market hypothesis is the application of rational expectations theory in the securities market. It believes that the efficient market reflects all the information that can be expected, and the fluctuation of securities prices is mainly affected by unexpected factor. The emergence of unexpected factor is random and unpredictable, which is the random walk theory. So, securities prices are unpredictable, and most portfolio investors can only obtain a balanced return rate.