基于F. E. Smith食物有限模型的中国人口数量预测

Chinese Population Size Prediction Based on F. E. Smith’s Food Finite Model

摘要: 本文提出了一类基于F. E. Smith修正后的食物模型，用于中国人口预测。通过对传统的logistic人口预测模型和Smith模型进行定性研究和定量预测，对比发现，通过选取适当的质量替换率参数，可以使得食物有限模型的预测效果比logistic模型的预测效果更加精准，从而更好地预测中长期的人口数量变化。

Abstract: In this paper, a modified food model based on F. E. Smith is proposed for population forecasting in China. Through qualitative research and quantitative prediction on the traditional logistic population prediction model and Smith model, it is found that by selecting appropriate quality replacement rate parameters, the prediction effect of the food-limited model can be more accurate than that of the logistic model, so as to better predict the medium and long-term population change.