基于岭回归和灰度预测模型的长三角新能源汽车未来发展情况预测

Prediction of the Future Development of New Energy Vehicles in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Ridge Regression and Gray Scale Prediction Models

摘要: 长三角在全国新能源市场占据主导地位。本文利用岭回归模型，运用了传统燃油汽车平均价格、市场占有率、保有量，新能源汽车平均价格、市场占有率、汽油价格、充电价格、充电桩数量、全国加油站数量、保有量等八个指标对两者之间的竞争关系进行了更进一步的阐释。用灰度预测模型预测未来7年两者市场保有量随时间变化的演化规律，发现两者的市场保有量差距正在逐渐缩小。经检验，该模型的拟合效果较好。

Abstract: The Yangtze River Delta dominates the national new energy market. In this paper, the ridge regression model is used to further explain the competitive relationship between the traditional fuel vehicle average price, market share, ownership, new energy vehicle average price, market share, gasoline price, charging price, the number of Charging station, the number of national gas stations, ownership and other eight indicators. Using a grayscale prediction model to predict the evolution of market ownership over time between the two over the next 7 years, it was found that the gap in market ownership between the two is gradually narrowing. After testing, the fitting effect of this model is good.