山东省县域碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究

Study on the Spatiotemporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Counties of Shandong Province

摘要: 论文基于1998~2017年山东省136个县域碳排放数据，采用自然断点法、SLOPE倾值法、空间自相关分析和时空地理加权回归模型，对山东省县域碳排放时空格局及影响因素进行分析。研究表明：1998~2017年寿光市碳排放增长速率最快。山东省县域碳排放在空间上呈现东北高西南低的格局。山东省县域碳排放量呈现为显著的空间集聚现象，从整体上呈现一个上升后下降的趋势。即墨区、胶州市、平度市、莱西市、垦利区、广饶县、莱州市7个城市，存在“高碳锁定”现象。各影响因素具有较强的时空异质性，GDP、产业结构、人口规模和技术水平对各县域碳排放发挥促进作用；城镇化水平和财政投入对不同时期不同县域的碳排放影响不同，就回归系数平均值而言，城镇化水平对碳排放发挥抑制作用，而财政投入对碳排放发挥促进作用。该研究结果从一定程度上可以为山东省制定地区化、差异化、定量化的减排政策提供科学依据，促进山东省乃至全国早日实现碳达峰、碳中和目标。

Abstract: Based on carbon emission data from 136 counties in Shandong Province from 1998 to 2017, this paper uses natural breakpoint method, SLOPE tilt method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and GTWR model to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of carbon emissions in counties in Shandong Province. Research shows that Shouguang City experienced the fastest growth rate of carbon emissions from 1998 to 2017. The carbon emissions of counties in Shandong Province show a spatial pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest. The carbon emissions of counties in Shandong Province show a significant spatial agglomeration phenomenon, showing an overall trend of increasing and then decreasing. Seven cities, including Jimo District, Jiaozhou City, Pingdu City, Laixi City, Kenli District, Guangrao County, and Laizhou City, have a phenomenon of “high carbon lock-in”. Each influencing factor has strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and GDP, industrial structure, population size, and technological level play a promoting role in promoting carbon emissions in each county; The level of urbanization and financial investment have different impacts on carbon emissions in different counties during different periods. In terms of the average regression coefficient, the level of urbanization plays an inhibitory role in carbon emissions, while financial investment plays a promoting role in carbon emissions. To some extent, the research results can provide a scientific basis for Shandong Province to formulate regionalized, differentiated and quantitative emission reduction policies, and promote Shandong Province and even the whole country to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible.