基于指数平滑–回归模型及灰色–回归模型的长三角物流需求预测分析

Logistics Demand Forecasting in Yangtze River Delta Based on Exponential Smoothing-Regression Model and Grey-Regression Model

摘要: 随着全国经济运行整体好转，长三角作为我国经济水平最高的地区之一，科学预测长三角区域物流需求有助于把握物流业未来的发展变化，为政府部门制定区域经济发展政策以增强地区经济活力提供重要参考依据。文章从宏观经济、对外开放程度、人口发展水平和人民生活水平四个维度选取6个典型指标作为多元回归因子，并通过灰色关联分析法分析各指标与长三角物流需求之间关联的程度，采用指数平滑–回归模型与灰色–回归模型分别对长三角区域的物流需求进行预测。其预测精度分析表明：指数平滑–回归模型在MAPE、MSE、MAE三个精度指标上均优于灰色–回归模型，指数平滑–回归预测模型效果优于灰色–回归预测模型，更适合对长三角物流需求进行中短期预测。预测结果显示未来五年长三角区域物流需求平均增速约为2.2%。结合预测结果，文章提出了相关管理建议以更好地促进长三角区域经济与物流业高质量发展。

Abstract: As a result of the overall improvement in national economic functioning as one of the areas with the highest economic level in the Yangtze River Delta, scientific forecasting of regional demand for logistics in the Yangtze River Delta is helpful for capturing the future development and change of the logistics industry and serves as an essential reference point for government departments in formulating regional economic development policies to enhance regional economic vitality. Six typical indicators are chosen here as multiple regressors from four dimensions of macroeconomics, the openness to the outside world, the level of population development and people’s standard of living, and the degree of correlation between each indicator and the logistic demand of the Yangtze River Delta are analyzed by grey correlation analysis method. Both the exponential smoothing regression model and the gray regression model are used to predict the logistics demand of the Yangtze River Delta. The prediction accuracy analysis shows that the exponential smooth-regression model is better than the gray-regression model in MAPE, MSE, and MAE, and the effect of the exponential smooth-regression model is better than the gray-regression model, which is more appropriate for short- and medium-term forecasting of Yangtze River Delta logistics demand. Based on the forecast results, the average rate of growth of logistics demand in the Yangtze River Delta over the next 5 years is approximately 2.2%. Taken together with the results of the forecasts, the paper advances some management suggestions to promote the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta’s regional economy and logistics industry.