基于MISOHRM模型的非一致性洪水频率计算方法及应用III：模型构建与非一致性洪水频率计算

Algorithm and Application of Inconsistent Flood Frequency Based on the MISOHRM Model (III): Hydrological Frequency Analysis with Inconsistent Flood Series

摘要: 西江流域由于上游干、支流和区间洪水遭遇和洪水归槽问题，导致上游量级不大的洪水到了下游则演变成大洪水或特大洪水，给流域防洪工作以及两岸人民生产生活造成了巨大威胁。针对干支流和区间遭遇作用的西江洪水问题，本文利用西江中游7个水文站1958~2007年的年最大洪峰流量序列和两个区间(武江区间和江梧区间)1958~2007年的年最大一日降雨序列，分别建立了西江中游两区间多输入单输出水文相关模型(MISOHRM)；从成因的角度探讨了西江中游干流控制站点大湟江口和梧州站洪水的组成和影响因子；并应用该模型对西江梧州站年最大洪峰流量序列进行频率计算，以得到过去、现状和未来条件(三种情景)下年最大洪峰流量序列的频率分布，为防洪规划和洪水灾害风险评估提供设计依据。

Abstract: Due to both flood returning to main channel and the encounter experience of  main and branch flood and interval flood, the flood could evolve into a deluge or catastrophic flood from a much smaller order of magnitude as it arrives from upstream to downstream, posing a significant threat to the drainage area’ flood control as well as people’s production and living on both sides. For studying the flood under the consideration of encounter experience of main and branch flood and interval flood in West River, the relevant model of multi-input and single-output are developed on the main and branch flood and the interval rainstorm, and using the relevant model to investigate the composition and impact factors of flood in Dahuangjiangkou and Wuzhou station from the perspective of causes. The station of Dahuangjiangkou in the WestRiveras an example, the past and present as well as future frequency distributions of annual flood series were gained, and get flood frequency distribution on changing environment, which provide design basis that flood control planning and flood risk assessment.