人力资本对产业结构的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Human Capital on Industrial Structure

摘要: 经济高质量发展阶段亟需产业结构优化升级，人力资本是推动产业结构转型升级的重要抓手。本文基于2011~2018年我国31个省级行政区的面板数据，采用双向固定效应、分段检验方法实证检验人力资本对产业结构的作用效应及影响机制。结果显示：1) 人力资本对产业结构升级有显著的促进作用，更换变量衡量方式、改变样本容量后上述结果依然稳健；2) 异质性检验结果发现人力资本对产业结构升级的推动作用在东部地区最为明显；3) 进一步机制检验结果发现，人力资本主要通过劳动生产率和消费水平两个渠道影响产业结构。

Abstract: In the stage of high-quality economic development, it is urgent to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure, and human capital is an important starting point to optimize the industrial structure. Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2018, this paper empirically examines the effect and mechanism of human capital on industrial structure by using two-way fixed effect and segmented test methods. The results show that: 1) Human capital has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, and the above results are still stable after changing the variable measurement method and changing the sample size; 2) The heterogeneity test results show that the promotion of human capital on industrial structure upgrading is most obvious in the eastern region; 3) Further mechanism test results show that human capital affects industrial structure mainly through two channels: labor productivity and consumption level.