巢湖入湖河道长系列径流回溯模拟与频率分析

Retrospective Simulation of Long-Term Inflow Runoff in Chao Lake and Frequency Analysis

摘要: 巢湖具有防洪、灌溉、供水、航运、水产等多种功能，也是“引江济淮”工程的重要输水区。长系列径流数据是开展巢湖流域水旱灾害治理和引江济淮工程优化调度的重要依据，但是目前巢湖入湖39条河道仅有2个系列不完整的水量监测断面，制约了巢湖流域规划和水资源综合管理。本文通过融合多源数据和水量平衡方法反演了巢湖的总入湖径流系列，采用产汇流演算和水文比拟等多种方法重构了巢湖的天然径流过程，进一步考虑外流域调水和工农业取用水等人类活动影响，回溯模拟了巢湖主要入湖河道的径流过程。经过多方案比选和合理性分析，论证了回溯模拟结果的可靠性，最后基于模拟成果开展了年径流频率分析。

Abstract: Chao Lake has many functions such as flood control, irrigation, water supply, navigation and aquatic products, and it is also an important water receiver of the “Diverting Yangtze River to Huai River” project. Long-term runoff data series are an important basis for controlling flood and drought hazards in Chao Lake basin and optimizing operation of Yangtze-Huai River diversion project. However, there are only 2 incomplete hydrological monitoring sections among 39 inflow rivers of Chao Lake, which limits the planning and integrated water resources management in Chao Lake basin. In this paper, by integrating multi-source data and water balance method, the total inflow streamflow series of Chao Lake is retrieved, and the natural runoff series of Chao Lake is reconstructed by employing multiple methods such as runoff yield-routing calculation and hydrological scaling. In addition, by considering the influences of human activities such as water transfer in external basins and industrial and agricultural water utilizations, the runoff process of the main inflow channels of Chao Lake is retrospectively simulated. The reliability of the simulation series is approved, and the annual runoff frequency analysis is carried out based on these simulation results.