基于层次分析法的危化品道路运输事故风险分析方法

Risk Analysis of Hazardous Chemical Road Transportation Accidents Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

摘要: 危化品的需求量呈不断上升趋势，随之危化品道路运输过程中的火灾、爆炸、泄漏等事故数量也不断上升，危害性极强。为了全面辨识危化品道路运输危险性和预防危化品道路运输事故的发生，本文提出一种基于层次分析法的危化品道路运输关键风险因素权重计算方法，首先，从危化品、人员、设备、环境和管理五方面影响因素入手，分析危化品道路运输安全的关键影响因素；系统分析危化品道路运输事故的主要原因，利用层次分析法建立危化品道路运输风险评价层次结构，进行危化品道路运输事故风险分析，确定各因素对应评价指标权重并进行量化处理；利用指标权重来判定各因素对事故发生的影响程度，对其中权重较大的影响因素提出对应合理的安全对策措施，有效降低事故发生概率。研究成果将有助于预防危化品道路运输事故危害，减少人身伤亡和财产损失。

Abstract: The demand for hazardous chemicals is on the rise, and the number of accidents such as fire, explosion and leakage in the road transportation of hazardous chemicals is also rising, which is extremely harmful. In order to fully identify the risk of road transportation of hazardous chemicals and pre-vent the occurrence of road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals, this paper proposes a method for calculating the weight of key risk factors of road transportation of hazardous chemicals based on analytic hierarchy process. Firstly, the key influencing factors of road transportation safety of hazardous chemicals are analyzed from five aspects of hazardous chemicals, personnel, equipment, environment and management. The main causes of road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals are systematically analyzed. The analytic hierarchy process is used to establish the risk assessment hierarchy of road transportation of hazardous chemicals, and the risk analysis of road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals is carried out to determine the weight of each factor corresponding to the evaluation index and quantify it. The index weight is used to determine the influence degree of each factor on the accident occurrence, and the corresponding reasonable safety countermeasures are put forward for the influencing factors with larger weight, so as to effectively reduce the probability of accident occurrence. The research results will help to prevent the harm of hazardous chemicals road transport accidents and reduce personal casualties and property losses.