气候变化条件下的湖北省水资源预估
Water Resource Estimation under Climate Change Conditions in Hubei Province
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2023.124044, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 薛海涵, 秦鹏程, 刘 敏： 武汉区域气候中心，湖北 武汉；长江流域气象中心，湖北 武汉；三峡国家气候观象台，湖北 宜昌；中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室，湖北 武汉
关键词: 水资源；气候变化；BP人工神经网络；径流系数法；Water Resources； Climate Change； BP Artificial Neural Network； Runoff Coefficient
摘要: 未来气候变化导致的水资源量变化对湖北省的经济发展影响重大。利用径流实测数据和地表水资源数据分析了过去湖北省水资源情势，并基于CMIP6多模式集合数据，采用BP人工神经网络和径流系数法分别对丹江口水库入库流量、湖北省14个水资源分区和湖北省水资源量进行了预估。结果表明：2023~2100年丹江口年入库流量呈现增加的趋势；2023~2100年湖北省水资源量呈现增加趋势，各水资源分区也呈现增加趋势；由于预估的不确定性，对湖北省水资源量的变化评价也存在较大的不确定性。
Abstract: The future changes in water resources due to climate change will have a significant impact on the economic development of Hubei Province. Utilizing measured runoff data and surface water resource data, the past water resource situation in Hubei Province was analyzed. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data, the BP artificial neural network and runoff coefficient method were used to estimate the inflow of Danjiangkou Reservoir, the fourteen water resource zones in Hubei Province, and the total water resources in the province. The results show that from 2023 to 2100, the annual inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir exhibits an increasing trend. From 2023 to 2100, the water resources of Hubei Province show an increasing trend, with an increasing trend observed in each water resource zone. Due to the estimated uncertainty, the assessment of changes in Hubei Province’s water resources also carries significant uncertainty.
文章引用：薛海涵, 秦鹏程, 刘敏. 气候变化条件下的湖北省水资源预估[J]. 水资源研究, 2023, 12(4): 396-404. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2023.124044

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