货币国际化影响因素的实证研究——基于货币国际化阶段性视角

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Level of Currency Internationalization—From the Perspective of the Stage of Currency Internationalization

摘要: 货币国际化是当今世界重要议题，分析货币国际化的影响因素对于推动货币国际化进程具有重要意义。本文通过聚类分析法将货币国际化分为萌芽期、发展期和成熟期三个阶段，用可行的广义最小二乘法进行回归分析得到各阶段货币国际化的影响因素。研究表明，货币国际化程度越高，越要注重经济实力；贸易上保持逆差的状态更有利于货币国际化；资本账户开放对三个阶段都有促进作用，且程度依次递增；保持金融市场稳定有利于发展期和成熟期的货币国际化；萌芽期要控制通胀率，而在发展期和成熟期通胀率被视为货币对内价值变动的正常现象；萌芽期和发展期汇率适当的波动有利于货币国际化，成熟期汇率应保持稳定；网络外部性对三个阶段都有促进作用。基于研究结论，推动人民币国际化可以从扩大经济规模、增加人民币输出、开放资本账户、完善汇率市场化形成机制和培养使用惯性等方面入手。

Abstract: Among the most crucial issues, currency internationalization cannot be ignored. Analyzing the influencing factors of currency internationalization is of great significance in promoting the process of currency internationalization. In this paper, currency internationalization is divided into three regimes by cluster analysis: germination stage, development stage and maturity stage. We further explore the determinants of currency internationalization in each stage by using FGLS panel regres-sions. The research shows that the higher the degree of currency internationalization, the more attention should be paid to economic strength; Maintaining a trade deficit is more conducive to currency internationalization; Capital account opening can promote the three stages, and the degree increases in turn; Maintaining the stability of the financial market is conducive to the internationalization of currency in the periods of development and maturity; The inflation rate should be controlled in the germination stage, while in the development and mature stage, the inflation rate is regarded as a normal phenomenon of the change of the value of the currency; The appropriate fluctuation of exchange rate in the germination and development stage is conducive to currency internationalization, and the exchange rate should remain stable in the mature stage; Network externality can promote the three stages. Combined with the research conclusions, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on RMB internationalization.