基于面板引力模型的棉花进口贸易影响因素研究——以山东省为例

Study on the Influence Factors of Cotton Import Based on Panel Gravity Model—A Case Study of Shandong Province

摘要: 本文在分析山东省棉花进口现状及问题的基础上，利用面板引力模型，采用山东省五个主要进口来源地印度、美国、澳大利亚、巴西及巴基斯坦等国2005~2021年的棉花进口相关数据进行稳健性检验及实证分析。结果表明：进口来源国的国内生产总值、山东省人口数量、进口国国内的棉花产量对山东省棉花进口产生显著正向影响，中国与贸易国地理距离及山东省棉花进口价格对山东省棉花进口产生显著负向影响。但不同来源国之间存在差异，印度受距离因素的负向影响最大，美国受棉花进口价格的负向影响最大，巴基斯坦和澳大利亚受山东省人口数量的正向影响最大，巴西受本国棉花产量的影响最大。

Abstract: This paper analyzes the cotton import status and problems in Shandong province, and adopts the cotton import data from 2005 to 2021, including India, the United States, Australia, Brazil and Pa-kistan, to make robust testing and empirical analysis. The results show that the GDP of the import source country, the population of Shandong province and the domestic cotton output of the import country have significantly positive effects on the cotton import of Shandong province, the geo-graphical distance between China and the trading countries and the cotton import price in Shan-dong province have a significant negative impact on the cotton import in Shandong province. However, there are differences among different source countries. India is most negatively affected by the distance factor, the United States is most negatively affected by the cotton import price, and Pakistan and Australia are most positively affected by the population of Shandong province, brazil has been most affected by its own cotton production.