南京市女性劳动参与率对生育水平的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Female Labor Participation Rate on Fertility Level in Nanjing City

摘要: 2021年江苏省的人口自然增长率已为负值−1.12%，2022年南京市常住人口出生率仅为6.01‰，低生育率已成为社会普遍关注的问题。本文从女性劳动参与率视角切入分析其对生育水平的影响机制，结果表明，女性劳动参与率会通过影响生育意愿进一步影响生育水平。同时，本文通过对2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据库中南京市的相关数据分析，显示女性劳动参与率与生育水平之间存在显著的负相关性，结合生育政策效果模型发现南京市实施二孩政策，对南京市生育水平产生了正向影响。未来可以通过工作时间的灵活调整，给女性提供平等就业机会，提高生育水平。

Abstract: The natural population growth rate in Jiangsu Province in 2021 is already negative −1.12%, and the birth rate of the resident population in Nanjing in 2022 is only 6.01‰, and low fertility rate has become a common concern in society. This paper analyzes the mechanism of female labor force participation rate’s influence on fertility level from the perspective of female labor force participation rate, and the results show that female labor force participation rate will further influence fertility level by affecting fertility intention. Meanwhile, this paper analyzes the relevant data of Nanjing in the 2018 China Mobile Population Dynamics Monitoring Survey database, showing that there is a significant negative correlation between the female labor force participation rate and fertility level, which, combined with the fertility policy effect model, finds that the implementation of the two-child policy in Nanjing has a positive impact on the fertility level in Nanjing. In the future, the fertility level can be improved by flexible adjustment of working hours and providing equal employment opportunities for women.