丽江气候变化研究

Research on Climate Change in Lijiang

摘要: 丽江市地处滇西北横断山纵谷地带的东部，不同区域的小气候各有特色，气候一致性差，随着全球变暖，我市的极端天气也愈发频繁，近几年针对我市气候资料全面系统的研究也较少。2020年结束后将形成一个新的年代，本项目拟通过对1961~2020年(60年)丽江市4个国家气象观测站的气候资料序列进行整编，统计新的常年对比值；对主要的气候数据(降水、温度、日照等)利用统计学回归分析法与Mann-Kenddall检验，进行年代及年代际变化规律及突变情况分析，对丽江市气候变化、气候预测有新的客观认识，以期对我市的防灾减灾有一定的科学指导意义。

Abstract: Lijiang City is located in the east of the Hengduan Mountains and longitudinal valleys in the northwest of Yunnan Province. The microclimates in different regions have their own characteristics, and the climate consistency is poor. With the global warming, extreme weather in Lijiang has become more frequent. In recent years, there has been less comprehensive and systematic research on the climate data in Lijiang. A new era will be formed after the end of 2020. The project plans to compile the climate data series of four national meteorological observation stations in Lijiang from 1961 to 2020 (60 years), and count the new perennial contrast values; For the main climate data (precipitation, temperature, sunshine, etc.), using statistical regression analysis and Mann Kendall test to analyze the patterns and abrupt changes of years and interdecades, this study provides a new objec-tive understanding of climate change and climate prediction in Lijiang City, with the aim of providing scientific guidance for disaster prevention and reduction in our city.