我国各地区差异化生育水平的生成逻辑研究——基于31省的模糊集定性比较分析

Study on the Generation Logic of Differential Fertility Levels in Various Regions of China—Based on fsQCA in 31 Provinces

摘要: 在我国生育率持续低迷和“全面三孩”时代的背景下，进行我国各地区差异化生育水平的比较研究，对各地区发展“因地制宜”的生育支持政策具有重要意义。因此，建立“个人–家庭–社会”的生育行为驱动因素框架，选取我国31个省份作为案例地区，使用模糊集定性比较分析方法研究我国各地区差异化生育水平的背后成因。研究发现：1) 地区生育水平的影响因素和驱动路径存在多种复杂组合，可以分为传统生育文化主导型、生育政策主导型、人口流出主导型和城镇发展主导型；2) 人口流动和城镇化是影响我国生育水平的重要条件；3) 在地区生育水平差异化的背景下，各级地方政府积极发展生育保障政策措施对维护良好的生育环境具有重要意义。本文的研究结论有助于深化对我国生育水平背后多重因素间复杂互动本质的理性认识，并为地方生育保障政策发展带来有益的实践启示。

Abstract: Against the background of China’s persistently low fertility rate and the era of “three children in all”, a comparative study of the differentiated fertility levels in different regions of China is of great significance to the development of “locally adapted” fertility support policies in each region. Therefore, we establish a framework of “individual-family-society” as the driving factors of fertility behavior, select 31 provinces in China as the case regions, and use fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to study the causes behind the differentiated fertility levels in different regions of China. The study finds that: 1) There are various complex combinations of factors and driving paths of regional fertility levels, which can be classified as traditional fertility culture-dominated, fertility policy-dominated, population outflow-dominated, and urban development-dominated; 2) Population mobility and urbanization are important conditions affecting China’s fertility levels; 3) In the context of differentiated fertility levels in the regions, the local governments of all levels have been actively developing the fertility protection policy and measures to maintain a good fertility environment. The findings of this paper help to deepen the rational understanding of the nature of the complex interactions among the multiple factors behind China’s fertility level, and bring useful practical insights for the development of local fertility protection policies.