扬州市冰雹时空分布特征及预报指标分析

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Forecasting Indexes Analysis of Hail in Yangzhou

摘要: 利用1992~2022年扬州市冰雹灾情和常规观测资料，统计分析了扬州市冰雹的时空分布特征、天气形势特征和环境场特征等。结果表明：扬州市冰雹次数的年际变化总体呈下降趋势；月降雹数呈“单峰型”，峰值为7月；冰雹分布南多北少，降雹局地性明显；11~19时为主要降雹时段，占总频次近75%。扬州市易产生冰雹的天气形势主要分为沿海低槽、高空冷涡、槽前西南气流和低层辐合型。另外，筛选得出适合扬州市的8种预报指标特征，并针对不同季节和天气形势细化指标值域，为扬州市冰雹天气潜势预报提供参考。

Abstract: Based on the hail disaster and conventional observation data in Yangzhou from 1992 to 2022, the spatial-temporal distribution, weather situation and environmental field characteristics of hail are analyzed. The results show that the annual feature presents a downward trend generally. The monthly distribution of hail frequency shows a “single peak” pattern, with a peak in July. Hail is distributed more in the south and less in the north, with obvious local characteristics. The main hail period is from 11:00 to 19:00, accounting for nearly 75%. The weather patterns that are prone to hail are mainly divided into coastal low trough, high-altitude cold vortex, southwest flow in front of trough, and low-altitude convergence types. In addition, electing 8 forecasting indexes and refined based to season and weather situations, thus providing reference for hail weather potential forecast in Yangzhou.