基于技术进步的建筑业碳排放回弹效应测度

Measurement of the Rebound Effect of Carbon Emissions in the Construction Industry Based on Technological Progress

摘要: 在双碳背景下，促进建筑业能源碳减排成为亟待解决的问题，但当前建筑业能源碳排放的研究较少，尤其是作为重要的生产力要素的技术进步对建筑业能源碳排放的影响尚不明确。文章在运用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算建筑业全要素生产率的基础上，对建筑业2002~2019年基于技术进步的碳排放回弹效应进行测度。结果表明：2002~2019年建筑业碳排放回弹效应整体表现为部分回弹效应，其中2014~2019年回弹现象相较之前更为明显，说明了建筑业碳排放回弹现象应引起重视，建筑业减排工作仍具有较大提升空间。鉴于此，为实现技术进步和建筑业碳减排双重目标，应制定合理碳减排政策，以降低技术进步对建筑业能源碳排放的回弹效应。

Abstract: In the context of dual carbon, promoting energy carbon emission reduction in the construction industry has become an urgent problem to be solved. However, there are few studies on energy carbon emissions in the construction industry, especially the impact of technological progress as an important productivity factor on energy carbon emissions in the construction industry is unclear. On the basis of using the DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the total factor productivity of the construction industry, this paper measures the carbon emission rebound effect of the construction industry based on technological progress from 2002 to 2019. The results show that the rebound effect of carbon emissions in the construction industry from 2002 to 2019 is a partial rebound effect, and the rebound phenomenon from 2014 to 2019 is more obvious than before. This indicates that the rebound phenomenon of carbon emissions in the construction industry should be paid attention to. There is still a lot of room for improvement in the emission reduction work of the construction industry. In view of this, in order to achieve the dual goals of technological progress and carbon emission reduction in the construction industry, reasonable carbon emission reduction policies should be formulated to reduce the rebound effect of technological progress on energy carbon emissions in the construction industry.