基于主成分分析法和多元回归对山东省农产品冷链物流的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Cold Chain Logistics of Agricultural Products in Shandong Province Based on Principal Component Analysis and Multiple Regression

摘要: 随着经济的不断发展，人民对安全、健康的农产品需求越来越多，山东省作为农业大省，拥有丰富的农产品资源，肉类、果类、蔬菜类等农产品的产量位居全国前列。本文以山东省农产品的冷链物流为研究对象，从区域经济发展状况、交通运输水平、国外内市场供需情况、产业结构四个方面综合选取了十二个指标，运用主成分分析法和多元回归研究了影响农产品冷链物流需求的若干因素，得到的模型方程拟合程度好，线性关系显著，能够较为精准的预测实际发生值，为山东省农产品冷链物流的发展提供一定参考。

Abstract: With the continuous development of economy, people’s demand for safe and healthy agricultural products is increasing. As a major agricultural province, Shandong Province has rich agricultural products resources, and the output of meat, fruits, vegetables and other agricultural products ranks among the top in the country. Taking the cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Shandong Province as the research object, this paper comprehensively selected 12 indicators from four aspects: regional economic development, transportation level, domestic and foreign market supply and demand, and industrial structure, and used principal component analysis and multiple regression to study several factors affecting the demand of cold chain logistics of agricultural products. The obtained model equation has a good fitting degree and a significant linear relationship. It can accurately predict the actual occurrence value and provide a certain reference for the development of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Shandong Province.