基于GM(1,1)模型深圳市重特大疾病补充医疗保险参保人数预测

Based on GM(1,1) Model, Prediction of the Number of Insured Persons in Shenzhen’s Supplementary Medical Insurance for Major Diseases

摘要: “健康中国”战略背景下，居民保险意识不断提升，作为基本医疗保险和商业医疗保险的衔接部分——城市定制型商业医疗保险得以迅速发展。基于深圳市医疗保障局公布的数据，分析深圳市2016~2021年重特大疾病补充医疗保险参保人数，通过建立灰色预测模型，预测未来六年深圳市重特大疾病补充医疗保险参保人数。结果表明，未来六年深圳市重特大疾病补充医疗保险参保人数将保持稳定增长的态势。最后，提出相关的对策建议，以期实现城市定制型商业医疗保险更好地发展。

Abstract: Under the background of “Healthy China” strategy, residents’ insurance awareness has been continuously improved; as a connecting part of basic medical insurance and commercial medical insurance, urban customized commercial medical insurance has developed rapidly. Based on the data released by Shenzhen Medical Security Bureau, this paper analyzes the number of people participating in the supplementary medical insurance for major diseases in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2021, and predicts the number of people participating in the supplementary medical insurance for major diseases in Shenzhen in the next 6 years by establishing a grey prediction model. The results show that the number of insured people in Shenzhen’s supplementary medical insurance for major diseases will maintain a steady growth trend in the next six years. Finally, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in order to achieve better development of urban customized commercial medical insurance.