开放三孩背景下人口结构预测与生育政策研究

Research on Population Structure Prediction and Fertility Policy under the Background of Opening up to Three Children

摘要: 中国的人口问题是经济发展的关键因素，近年来我国出现低生育率陷阱、劳动力供给不足、老龄化加剧等一系列人口问题，并给社会养老、教育、医疗等方面带来了很大的挑战。因此，通过分析生育政策对我国生育率以及人口年龄结构的影响，对完善生育配套设施提出建议至关重要。本文利用改进的Leslie模型，不仅考虑了“开放三孩”政策的影响效果，还增加了男性人口Leslie矩阵的构建，对未来10年人口的年龄结构进行了预测。预测结果显示该政策实施后的三四年内人口数量会有短暂的上升，男女性别比基本保持稳定，至2032年与当前人口结构对比发现，人口出生率有所增加、劳动力稍有不足、人口老龄化比例略有上升。还使用随机森林进行回归分析，研究养育成本和生育意愿之间的关系，分析“双减”政策所带来的教育减负是否会对人口出生率有影响。结果显示城乡居民养育成本中教育支出逐年增长，养育成本是影响生育意愿的主要因素，实行“双减”政策对人口出生率有一定影响。

Abstract: The population problem in China is a key factor in economic development. In recent years, China has encountered a series of population problems such as the low fertility trap, insufficient labor supply, and intensified aging, which have brought great challenges to social pension, education, healthcare, and other aspects. Therefore, it is crucial to provide suggestions for improving fertility facilities by analyzing the impact of fertility policies on China’s fertility rate and population age structure. This article utilizes an improved Leslie model, which not only considers the impact of the “open three child” policy, but also adds the construction of a Leslie matrix for the male population to predict the age structure of the population in the next 10 years. The prediction results show that the population will briefly increase within three to four years after the implementation of this policy, and the gender ratio between men and women will remain basically stable. By 2032, compared with the current population structure, it was found that the birth rate has increased, the labor force is slightly insufficient, and the proportion of population aging has slightly increased. We also used random forests for regression analysis to study the relationship between parenting costs and fertil-ity intentions, and to analyze whether the educational burden reduction brought about by the “double reduction” policy will have an impact on the birth rate. The results show that the education expenditure in the cost of parenting for urban and rural residents has been increasing year by year, and parenting cost is the main factor affecting fertility willingness. The implementation of the “dou-ble reduction” policy has a certain impact on the birth rate of the population.