基于演化博弈的飞机租赁中利益主体决策优化研究

Research on Optimization of Stakeholder Decision in Aircraft Leasing Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

摘要: 成立并加强与子租赁公司的合作，是目前航空业应对新租赁准则及其他外部挑战的关键举措。本研究充分考虑子租赁公司的主观能动性，运用演化博弈对航空公司与其下设子公司之间关于飞机租赁的决策优化问题进行了系统研究。综合考虑租赁公司存在“合作”和“对抗”两种策略以及航空公司存在“监督”和“不监督”两种策略，建立起双方的非对称演化博弈模型。通过均衡结果的稳定性分析与数据仿真，得到两者在不同情形下的策略选择与演化路径。同时，对监督成本、惩罚金额与对抗收益等影响策略选择和演化趋势的关键因素进行了灵敏度分析，认为三者均为影响租赁双方策略选择的主要因素。相关研究结论可为航空业通过策略优化手段，有序开展并规范母子公司之间的飞机租赁业务，提供一定理论依据。

Abstract: The establishment and strengthening of cooperation with sub-leasing companies is now a key measure for the aviation industry to cope with the new leasing guidelines and other external challenges. In this study, the subjective initiative of sub-leasing companies is fully taken into account and evolutionary game is used to systematically study the decision-making strategy opti-mization of aircraft leasing between airlines and their subsidiaries. Considering the two strategies of “cooperation” and “confrontation” of leasing companies and the two strategies of “super-vision” and “non-supervision” of airlines, the asymmetric evolutionary game model of both parties is established. Through the stability analysis of the equilibrium results and the data simulation, the decision selection and evolution paths of the two under different circumstances are obtained. At the same time, the sensitivity analysis of the key factors affecting the strategy selection and evolution trend, such as supervision cost, penalty amount and countermeasure income, is carried out, believing that all three factors are the main factors affecting the strategic choices of both rental parties. Relevant research conclusions can provide certain theoretical basis for the aviation industry to orderly carry out and standardize the aircraft leasing business between parent and subsidiary companies by means of strategic optimization.