我国地区分布式能源驱动因素的空间分位数面板模型研究

Study on the Driving Factors of Distributed Energy in China Based on Spatial Quantile Panel Model

摘要: 大力推广分布式能源能够有效促进我国能源结构转型，推动经济发展绿色化、低碳化。基于2005~2019年的省级面板数据，本文采用空间分位数面板模型实证分析了我国地区分布式能源处于不同发展水平下，各影响因素对分布式能源发展的驱动效应。研究结果表明：1) 我国地区分布式能源存在显著的正向空间关联性。2) 我国各地区分布式能源处于不同发展水平时其影响因素的效应不尽相同。基础设施投资和城镇化在分布式能源各分位点下都有着显著的促进作用；分布式能源发展水平较低的省份，技术进步具有显著的正向影响，而对外石油依存和能源消费结构则表现为负向影响；分布式能源发展水平较高的省份，化石燃料价格上涨对分布式能源的推广具有正向影响。据此，本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Abstract: The development of distributed energy can effectively promote the transformation of China’s energy structure, and promote the greening and decarbonization of economic development. Based on provincial panel data from 2005~2019, this paper empirically analyzes the driving effect of each influencing factor on the development of distributed energy in China’s regions where distributed energy is at different levels of development using a spatial quantile panel model. The results of the study show that 1) There is a significant positive spatial correlation of regional distributed energy in China. 2) The effects of the influencing factors are not the same when distributed energy is at different levels of development in each region of China. Infrastructure investment and urbanization have significant promotion effects under each quartile of distributed energy; in provinces with a lower level of distributed energy development, technological progress has a significant positive effect, while foreign oil dependence and energy consumption structure show a negative effect; in provinces with a higher level of distributed energy development, the rise in fossil fuel prices has a positive effect on the promotion of distributed energy. Accordingly, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.