基于GM(1,1)预测农村医疗服务资源与发展需求

Prediction of Rural Medical Service Resources and Development Demand Based on GM(1,1)

摘要: 为促进我国农村医疗卫生条件发展，加快完善医疗卫生资源供给，利用GM(1,1)预测模型与2015~2020年农村医疗卫生相关数据，分别从农村医疗技术人员配备数、农村卫生机构床位数及农村人均可支配收入等方面选取指标，分析我国2021~2028年农村地区医疗服务资源与发展需求。结果显示，到2028年我国农村地区每千人口乡镇卫生所数达2.3个，床位数达179.73万张，每千人口农村注册护士达4.26人，农村卫生技术人员达8.58人。随着经济发展与社会保障制度不断完善，农村地区医疗服务仍存在不足之处，今后应拓宽农村医疗服务机构的范畴，加大医疗人力资源投入，保障农村医疗服务资源与发展需求。

Abstract: In order to promote the development of rural medical and health conditions and accelerate the improvement of the supply of medical and health resources, the GM(1,1) prediction model and 2015~2020 rural medical and health related data were used to select indicators from the aspects of the number of rural medical technicians, the number of beds in rural health institutions and the per capita disposable income in rural areas. To analyze the medical service resources and development needs of rural areas in China from 2021 to 2028. The results show that by 2028, there will be 2.3 township clinics, 1,797,300 beds, 4.26 registered nurses and 8.58 health technicians per 1,000 people in rural areas. With the continuous improvement of economic development and social security system, there are still deficiencies in medical services in rural areas. In the future, the scope of rural medical service institutions should be expanded, and the input of medical human resources should be increased to ensure the resources and development needs of rural medical services.