基于GM(1,1)预测模型的中国医疗机构发展预测研究

Research on the Development Prediction of Chinese Medical Institutions Based on GM(1,1) Prediction Model

摘要: 对我国医疗机构的发展进行科学、合理预测，根据现在已有的数据为我国今后的卫生规划的制订提供参考依据。本文通过《中国统计年鉴2021》收集我国2015年至2020年的医疗机构数量作为研究样本，建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型，运用建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对我国2021年至2035年医疗机构的数量进行预测。据模型结果显示，到2035年，我国的医疗机构数量将会达到1,185,134个。可以看出在这20年里我国的医疗机构数量一直呈现出稳步上升的趋势。通过Excel建立了GM(1,1)预测模型，达到里C = 0.196 < 0.35，P = 0.997，模型的拟合效果非常好。

Abstract: The scientific and reasonable prediction of the development of medical institutions in China is made, and the reference basis for the formulation of health planning in the future is provided according to the existing data. In this paper, the number of medical institutions in China from 2015 to 2020 is collected by China Statistical Yearbook 2021 as research samples, and a grey GM(1,1) prediction model is established to predict the number of medical institutions in China from 2021 to 2035. According to the model, the number of medical institutions in China will reach 1,185,134 by 2035. It can be seen that the number of medical institutions in our country has been showing a steadily increasing trend in the past 20 years. The GM(1,1) prediction model was established by Excel, and the results showed that C = 0.196 < 0.35, P = 0.997, and the fitting effect of the model was very good.