基于MLP和SHAP值的白酒消费者粘性影响因素分析

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Liquor Consumer Stickiness Based on MLP and SHAP Values

摘要: 本文以白酒消费者为对象，通过调查问卷收集消费者的相关数据。首先，构建了需求频次、品牌效应、消费意愿三个维度下的21个指标的白酒消费者粘性指标评价模型；其次，通过多层感知机模型，用10折交叉验证寻找出29个神经元个数，进而计算白酒消费者粘性影响因素的重要性并进行排序；最后，利用SHAP值对白酒消费者粘性的影响因素进行相关性和协同性分析。实验结果表明，需求频次、品牌效应以及消费意愿三个维度所占的权重分别为37.57%、31.58%和30.84%，且将需求频次、品牌效应和消费意愿三个维度结合起来的共同作用对白酒消费者粘性的提高至关重要。本文通过对不同影响因素进行分析，并在此基础上提出关于白酒产品的改进建议，可以通过针对性的市场营销和产品定位策略来提高消费者的粘性。

Abstract: This paper takes liquor consumers as the object and collects relevant data of consumers through questionnaires. Firstly, we construct liquor consumer stickiness evaluation index mode, which consists of three dimensions, demand frequency, brand effect and consumption intention. Secondly, using a multi-layer perceptron model, 29 neuron counts were identified through 10-fold cross-validation in order to determine the importance and ranking of factors affecting the consumer stickiness in white wine consumption. Finally, we used the SHAP value to analyze the correlation and synergy of the factors affecting the stickiness of liquor consumers. The ex-perimental results show that the weights of demand frequency, brand effect and consumption intention are 37.57%, 31.58% and 30.84% respectively, and the combination of the three dimensions is crucial to the improvement of liquor consumers’ stickiness. Based on the analysis of different influencing factors, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the improvement of liquor products to improve the stickiness of consumers through targeted marketing and product positioning strategies.