耕地“非农化”影响因素分析——以贵州省为例

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the “Non Agricultural Conversion” of Cultivated Land—Taking Guizhou Province as an Example

摘要: 中国坚持十八亿亩农田红线，是保证国家粮食生产安全的重要基石，但在中国城市化进程加速发展的大背景下，有限的耕地资源面临巨大的压力，了解耕地非农化的驱动因素，并有针对性的进行管理和制定相应政策具有重要意义。本文利用spss软件进行回归分析方法，对贵州省耕地“非农化”驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：耕地“非农化”受到经济、人口等多种因素的影响，其中第二三产业增加值与贵州省耕地非农化程度呈正相关。耕地非农化程度与人均GDP增长率、城镇化增长率和农村常住居民人均可支配收入增长率呈负相关。研究结论：耕地“非农化”受到经济、人口等多种因素的影响，政府在制定调控管理政策时应着眼于影响因素对于耕地“非农化”的驱动或者抑制作用，分别从不同角度采取措施加强对耕地的保护。

Abstract: China’s adherence to the red line of 1.8 billion acres of farmland is an important cornerstone for ensuring national food production security. However, in the context of the accelerated development of urbanization in China, limited arable land resources are facing enormous pressure. Understanding the driving factors of non agricultural conversion of arable land, and conducting targeted management and formulating corresponding policies are of great significance. This article uses SPSS software for regression analysis to analyze the driving factors of “non agricultural conversion” of cultivated land in Guizhou Province. The results indicate that the “non agricultural” transformation of cultivated land is influenced by various factors such as economy and population, among which the added value of the human secondary and tertiary industries is positively correlated with the degree of non agricultural transformation of cultivated land in Guizhou Province. The degree of non agricultural conversion of arable land is negatively correlated with the per capita GDP growth rate, urbanization growth rate, and per capita disposable income growth rate of rural permanent residents. Research conclusion: The “non agricultural transformation” of cultivated land is influenced by various factors such as economy and population. When formulating regulatory and management policies, the government should focus on the driving or inhibitory effects of these factors on the “non agricultural transformation” of cultivated land, and take measures from different perspectives to strengthen the protection of cultivated land.