基于国家统计局2010~2021年数据研究城镇养老保险基金支出对城镇居民消费的影响

A Study of the Impact of Urban Pension Fund Expenditures on the Consumption of Urban Residents Based on Data from the National Bureau of Statistics for the Period 2010~2021

摘要: 在新的经济增长形势下，如何扩大内需、刺激消费需求、激发消费潜力，成为促进我国经济进一步持续发展的重要举措。本文采用实证分析的方法，选取国家统计局统计年鉴2010~2021年的数据，研究城镇基本养老保险基金支出对家庭消费支出的影响，其中家庭消费支出选取衣着、教育、医疗、生活用品、居住、交通通信六个方面的变量，对城镇基本养老保险基金的支出进行回归分析，结果显示，随着城镇基本养老保险基金的支出增加，城镇居民基础性消费减少，更高层次的需求增加，对消费结构的改善起到了促进的作用。最后综合实证分析得到的结果，提出继续完善城镇基本养老保险制度的政策建议。

Abstract: Under the new economic growth situation, how to expand domestic demand, stimulate consumer demand, stimulate consumption potential, has become an important measure to promote the further sustainable development of China’s economy. This paper adopts the method of empirical analysis, selects the data of the National Bureau of Statistics Statistical Yearbook 2010~2021 to study the impact of urban basic pension insurance fund expenditure on household consumption expenditure, in which the household consumption expenditure selects the variables of clothing, education, medical care, daily necessities, residence, transportation and communication in six aspects, and carries out the regression analysis on the expenditure of the urban basic pension insurance fund, and the results show that, with the expenditure of urban basic pension insurance fund increasing, basic consumption of urban residents decreases and higher-level demand increases, which plays a role in promoting the improvement of consumption structure. Finally, the results of the empirical analysis are synthesized, and policy suggestions for continuing to improve the urban basic pension insurance system are put forward.