中国邮轮经济韧性测度研究

Research on Measuring the Resilience of China’s Cruise Economy

摘要: 面对疫情的重大冲击，邮轮行业亟须对邮轮经济韧性进行思考。本文对国内外文献韧性理论和邮轮经济等概念进行分析和总结，给邮轮经济韧性界定概念和构建框架，并进一步构建影响邮轮经济韧性的分维度指标。本文选取2013年~2022年的数据指标来进行研究，使用虚拟最劣解TOPSIS和灰色关联度的动态评价模型测度其韧性，其中重点分析疫情前后邮轮经济韧性变化。结果表明：2013年~2019年，我国邮轮经济韧性呈现平稳上升的趋势，邮轮经济韧性经历疫情的暴跌后，呈现一个较快回升的趋势；分维度来看，疫情前再组织能力和恢复能力较为突出，疫情后抵御能力和更新能力突出，同时经历疫情后，分维度能力差距缩小。研究邮轮经济韧性可以全面地了解在面对风险时邮轮行业的反应，可以帮助提高应对风险的能力，同时对邮轮经济的未来发展起到指导性的作用。

Abstract: Faced with the significant impact of the epidemic, the cruise industry urgently needs to reflect on the resilience of the cruise economy. This article analyzes and summarizes the concepts of resilience theory and cruise economy in domestic and foreign literature, defines the concept and construction framework of cruise economy resilience, and further constructs sub dimensional indicators that affect cruise economy resilience. This article selects data indicators from 2013 to 2022 for research, using a dynamic evaluation model of virtual worst solution TOPSIS and grey correlation degree to measure its resilience, with a focus on analyzing the changes in the resilience of the cruise economy before and after the epidemic. The results show that from 2013 to 2019, the resilience of China’s cruise economy showed a steady upward trend, and after experiencing a sharp decline in the epidemic, the resilience of the cruise economy showed a relatively fast recovery trend; from a multi-dimensional perspective, the ability to reorganize and recover before the epidemic is relatively outstanding, while the ability to resist and update after the epidemic is outstanding. At the same time, after experiencing the epidemic, the gap in multi-dimensional ability has narrowed. Studying the resilience of the cruise economy can comprehensively understand the response of the cruise industry to risks, help improve its ability to cope with risks, and play a guiding role in the future development of the cruise economy.