基于成都市常住人口预测下的城市资源配置

Comparative Analysis of China-Germany-Japan Railway Mountain Tunnel Design

摘要: 自2016年以来，城镇化进程已逐年放缓，但超大型城市由于自身具有虹吸效应依旧会吸引大量外来人口流入，当城市资源及基础设施建设跟不上人口增长的脚步时，环境污染、资源紧张、人口拥挤、交通堵塞等一系列“城市病”就会接踵而至，如何合理配置城市各项资源成了缓解超大型城市人口问题的突破口之一。本文结合成都市相关政策资料，采用可能–满意度模型计算出满足群众基本要求的适当人口规模；再结合GM-LSTM模型预测2035年成都市常住人口规模，倒推计算出适合2035年常住人口规模的各项资源配置情况。结果表明：2020年成都市常住人口规模已经极度接近2035年适度人口规模，且2035年常住人口规模超出政府规划红线。从适度人口的角度来看，到2035年，在可能–满意度水平为0.6的情况下，成都市供水量、供电量、天然气供应量均需达到当前水平的4.5倍以上；全市绿地面积需达到当前水平的2.7倍。

Abstract: Since 2016, the process of urbanization has slowed down year by year, but the super-large cities will still attract a large number of foreign populations due to their siphon effect. When urban resources and infrastructure construction cannot keep up with the pace of population growth, a series of “urban diseases” such as environmental pollution, resource tension, population crowding, traffic congestion will follow, How to rationally allocate urban resources has become one of the breakthroughs to alleviate the population problem in super-large cities. Based on the relevant policy data of Chengdu, this paper calculates the appropriate population size to meet the basic requirements of the masses by using the possibility-satisfaction model; combined with the GM-LSTM model, the permanent population size of Chengdu in 2035 is predicted, and the resource allocation conditions suitable for the permanent population size in 2035 are calculated backwards. The results show that the permanent population size of Chengdu in 2020 has been extremely close to the appropriate population size in 2035, and the permanent population size in 2035 has ex-ceeded the government’s planning red line. From the perspective of moderate population, by 2035, the water supply, power supply and natural gas supply in Chengdu will be more than 4.5 times of the current level under the condition that the possible-satisfaction level is 0.6; the green area of the city needs to reach 2.7 times the current level.