基于STIRPAT模型的珠三角地区碳达峰预测

Carbon Peak Prediction in the Pearl River Delta Based on STIRPAT Model

摘要: 基于STIRPAT模型研究碳排放量的影响因素，同时加入人均GDP的二次项来验证环境库茨涅茨假说，采用情景分析法设置3种模式预测珠三角地区的碳排放量和各市的碳排放量预测值。研究结果显示：1) 人口规模、人均GDP、能源强度、产业结构、城镇化率均正向影响碳排放量，城镇化率对碳排放量的影响程度最大。2) 珠三角地区人均GDP与经济增长不存在倒U型关系。3) 基准模式、低碳模式下珠三角地区在2035年和2025年实现碳达峰，达峰值分别为27,953.94万吨和25,578.31万吨。粗放模式下，不能实现碳达峰。珠三角地区应选择低碳模式以实现国家碳达峰目标。基于上述研究，提出珠三角城市群除协同减排之外，还从政府、企业角度提出城市群差异化减排的具体对策。

Abstract: Based on the STIRPAT model, the influencing factors of carbon emissions are studied, and the quadratic term of per capita GDP is added to validate the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Three models are set up using scenario analysis to predict carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region and the predicted values of carbon emissions in various cities. The results show that: 1) Population size, per capita GDP, energy intensity, industrial structure, and urbanization rate all positively affect carbon emissions, and the urbanization rate has the greatest impact on carbon emissions. 2) There is no inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita GDP and economic growth in the Pearl River Delta region. 3) Under the benchmark mode and low-carbon mode, the Pearl River Delta region achieved carbon peaking in 2035 and 2025, with peaks of 279.5394 million tons and 255.7831 million tons, respectively. In extensive mode, carbon peaking cannot be achieved. The Pearl River Delta region should choose a low-carbon model to achieve the national carbon peak target. Based on the above research, it is proposed that in addition to collaborative emission reduc-tion, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration also proposes specific strategies for differentiated emission reduction from the perspectives of the government and enterprises.