基于ARIMA模型的山东省GDP的研究与预测

Research and Forecasting of GDP in Shandong Province Based on ARIMA Modeling

摘要: GDP是衡量一个国家或地区经济发展状况的重要指标，COVID-19流行期间，各地经济的发展均受到或大或小的影响，经济发展策略和经济体系需要进行调整，所以GDP预测研究更是显得尤为重要。因此，本文基于ARIMA模型，对山东省近年来的GDP进行拟合和预测。结果表明，山东省的经济一直处于稳定增长状态，受疫情影响增速变缓。预测结果显示，未来5年山东省GDP仍保持增长状态。最后根据预测结果对山东省发展提出合理的建议。

Abstract: GDP is an important indicator to measure the economic development of a country or region, during the COVID-19 epidemic, the development of the economy of each place is affected to a greater or lesser extent, the economic development strategy and the economic system need to be adjusted, so the GDP forecasting research is more important. Therefore, this paper is based on ARIMA model to fit and forecast the GDP of Shandong Province in recent years. The results show that the economy of Shandong Province has been in a stable growth state, and the growth rate has been slowed down by the epidemic. The prediction results show that the GDP of Shandong Province still maintains the growth state in the next five years. Finally, reasonable suggestions for the development of Shandong Province are made based on the prediction results.