产业结构升级对系统性金融风险的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Systemic Financial Risk

摘要: 产业结构优化升级持续化解风险是实现经济稳健发展的关键。本文基于2010~2019年省域面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型，实证检验产业结构升级对系统性金融风险的作用机理。研究发现：1) 产业结构升级显著抑制系统性金融风险，考虑滞后效应、剔除外部冲击影响后上述结论依旧成立；2) 异质性分析结果显示，产业结构升级在发达地区对系统性金融风险抑制作用最明显；3) 进一步机制检验结果发现，产业结构升级主要通过加大政府财政支持力度、降低企业亏损抑制系统性金融风险。

Abstract: Optimization and upgrading of industrial structure to continuously resolve risks is the key to achieving sound economic development. Based on the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019, this paper adopts a two-way fixed effect model to empirically test the mechanism of industrial structure upgrading on systemic financial risks. The results show that: 1) The upgrading of industrial structure significantly inhibits systemic financial risks, and the above conclusions are still valid after considering the lag effect and excluding the impact of external shocks; 2) the results of heterogeneity analysis show that industrial structure upgrading has the most obvious inhibitory effect on systemic financial risks in developed regions; 3) the further mechanism test results show that the upgrading of industrial structure mainly inhibits systemic financial risks by increasing government financial support and reducing enterprise losses.